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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce almost 5x greater global warming pollution than official data indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy In Lab and Real-World Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit only one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, according to analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. This differs sharply with lab tests, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts studied data from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand cars registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior researcher involved in the study. “This discrepancy is widening and creates a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit almost as much as petrol vehicles.”

Primary Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of kilometers driven in battery power compared to total mileage. The team determined that only a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, while lab assumptions assumed 84%.

Even, when operating in electric mode, pollution levels were well above lab projections. That occurred because electric motors were not strong sufficient to operate alone, leading to combustion motors using gasoline for nearly a third of the travel completed in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Consequences

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 more per year in running costs than is assumed under lab tests.

“The bold claims that automakers like to make about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are clearly way off the truth,” stated a automotive expert. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving costs. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Political Debate and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been drawn back into political debates as carmakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive industry and opposition from member states with significant car industries.

Some senior politicians have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the regulation.

An external energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the report a “highly valuable contribution” after years in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient data to accurately evaluate actual emissions.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference between lab and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “Any regulatory changes concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and considering that data.”